Sunday, June 14, 2009

Funny thing happened on the way to the chop

Blogging the Summer Open I've seen a ton of funny, stupid and pretty smart stuff. The $1k offered something to consider.

Usually these things start discussing chops when there are around 15 people left. Sometimes earlier. Sometimes later. But this tourney was different. It was only a 15k starting stack but the levels were 45 minutes and then bumped to an hour when it got to the final table.

I would tell you that by covering these things that there's usually a sweet spot for chops. That is to say the best time to offer and make them. That occurs usually when there's 4 to 7 players left.

Anything before 7 and it just gets stupid. Anything after 4 and it becomes a mess. Especially when someone has the lion share of the chips. Heads up isn't always easy either because both see the light at the end of the tunnel. But usually they're so tired from playing forever, that they come to an agreement. But 3 left is almost impossible unless you have 3 like minded people.

So today, during the 1K we had three players left. Levels were 10k/20k with 4k antes and an hour long. The next level was going to 15k/30k with the same 4k antes.

Player one had 2.3 million in chips, player 2 had 1.1 million in chips and player 3 had 600k

The offer came up and it was 61k to the chip leader, 50k to second and 29k to third.

First actually paid 73k, second paid 44k and third was to get 23k.

So third is looking at 6k more to call it quits.

He asked me my advice and I told him to tell them to shove it.

Now, I'm usually a big advocate of chops. I think they make the most sense in terms of equity, especially when the structure leads to push and pray type poker and variance will play more into the outcome.

But with this structure and the ability, or chance even, to double up and grab a whole lot more, I thought that the extra 6k was not worth the opportunity to grab another 21k.

Here's why I thought he should not chop.

1. the structure was way to favorable to be able to sit there and wait it out.
2. The 6k extra wasn't enough to entice him to give up on another 21k or 50k even if he caught lightning and went on to win.
3. 6K to this guy is like a tank of gas. It plays into the scenario.
4. He asked for 3k more from the guy who was taking 50k, and he refused to relent stating he had twice the amount of chips.

I offered to calculate the chip equity via ICM but it never got to that. He refused to chop and it played out as I wrote on the blog. Which you can read here.

He took third after getting sucked out on after 4 bet shoving pre flop, but I still think it was the right decision. Based on the structure, the offer, and his situation. Not to mention the desire to keep playing.

This guy was a first timer, and he plays for fun. He's not a tournament grinder. He wanted to take his shot, and he did. Unfortunately it played out to his disadvantage, but he had no regrets.

Feel free to post your thoughts, and rip me for costing a guy another 6k.

There's a lot more action this month here and tomorrow is the $500 deep stack. Considering the field, I'm sure the chop action will get a whole lot more interesting. I'll be sure to post updates.

1 comment:

DrChako said...

With that M, it was the right call.