Monday, July 27, 2009

Phillies Trade Hypotheticals

It was reported over the weekend that the Phils countered the Jays first offer for Halladay (Drabek, Happ, and Brown) with Happ, Carrasco, Taylor, and Jason Donald.

The Jays then went on a league rampage talking to other clubs such as the Angels and Dodgers (again), the Rangers, and one other team that is so insignificant I can't recall.

They're seemingly insignificant for several reasons. Each will have their own issue in signing Halladay, from not having enough cap space to not really having the talent that they are either willing to part with, or don't even have for Toronto to be satisfied with.

Toronto has stated that they are fine with not trading him, but I just don't see it. An arm like that without the surrounding talent is pretty much worthless to an organization who seems to be very interested in long term success.

So that leaves this weekends happenings with a huge question mark. Who is posturing? Of course the fans and overall baseball theorists believe that Halladays worth to the Phils is great enough to give away whatever is asked for. I think that Torontos demands are reasonable. I also think that the Phils counter was more than reasonable.

So that leaves us with the supposition that both sides are doing nothing more than posturing. Of course Buster Olney of ESPN's MLB Tonight reported that it got "nasty". Which I highly doubt, but he needed to report something to show he was in "the know".

My guess is that both of these teams understands what they are going to get/ give for this ridiculous talent, and something will pop on Thursday.

Toronto is taking it's stance because who knows what retarded thing could happen before then, either forcing the Phillies hand to give what they requested or getting what the Phillies countered. Halladay wont stand for not being traded and that will likely make for a rough end of season for Toronto so they want to deal him now.

It was reported that the Jays sent their scouts to the IronPigs (Phils 3A team) to watch Carrasco pitch. Unfortunately he gave up 6 runs in 6 innings that day and the scouts left unimpressed. Heck, even Glavin, Maddux, and Clemens have been shelled at some point. That and the fact that you're looking at something that you don't want to leaves a lot of expectations on what you are looking at. When he doesn't perform, it's an easy assumption. The fact that they went to look at him (again) so close to a possible trade is an indication that they really want to trade Halladay to the Phils. Why? Because the only value he has to them right now is trade value, and they know that the Phils are the only team that has enough to make that trade.

My guess is that you will see Halladay in a Phillies uniform by the weekend and Drabek, Happ, and if not Brown, then Taylor and Donald sent off to Toronto. Here's to wishful thinking :)


Astin said...

Still say it isn't going to happen.

Where is it said that Halladay won't stand for not being traded? He's gone from stating he'd veto any trades to saying repeatedly that he's got no problem staying in Toronto (and not in the bullshit way most players do). Guy just comes out and does his job, and avoids all the prima-donna bullshit most players of his calibre give.

He's got another year here, and he's type A when he's a free agent, so the Jays get draft picks even if they lose him.

The whole thing is political. It sets a price for Halladay in the off-season if he doesn't want to extend his contract. The Jays don't give a shit about rebuilding with youth. They're losing money and want to produce NOW, because Toronto "fans" only care if they're winning in July. They look at guys like Romero and Cecil and figure pitching has a good future here.

I find the differences of opinions between the fans of teams who WANT Doc and the fans of the team who HAS Doc amusing. It's like there are two completely different deals being talked about.

jjok said...

I don't think he will get moved, honestly......

But my Rangers should would love having him.

Hey, we have no state income tax, didntcha know?

Riggstad said...


Didn't they borrow money to make payroll this month?

As far as Halladay wanting to be moved, I know what he has said. And I think the fact that he wants to go is based purely on free agency. He knows his number goes up exponentially if he is with a winner.

It's that simple. But you are right. Both sides fans opinions are certainly biased.

And I'll put a $5 bet on him being moved by this weekend :) to Philly!

My basis is purely on Toronto's needs. Again, he holds zero value to them other than a trade for prospects right now. They almost have to move him now.

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

I disagree that Toronot has to move him, just because they can surely get great value for him trading him in the upcoming offseason, and even quite possibly a year from now before next summer's trading deadline (though I doubt it gets that far).

I tend to think that Ricciardi is doing whatever he can think of to try to absolutely maximize the value he can get from a trade for Halladay. First he stated publicly that Halladay was on the block and that the team would "entertain offers" for him, specifying only that they are looking for multiple young prospects in exchange. Then they scouted for a couple of weeks after a number of offers came in, and then finally this past weekend they asked for what they know is more than they are likely to get for him. This is all perfectly consistent with someone just trying to negotiate as strongly as possible.

Let's see what happens this week. I tend to agree that the Phils still seem to be the front runner, but I just can't shake this feeling that either the Dodgers, the Angels or the Red Sox will figure something out to end up with him.

FYI I am still torn as to whether I would give us Drabek, Happ and another prospect (or two) for Halladay. He is incredible and surely that deal would improve the team immediately, but over the medium- or long-term I am not so sure when both Drabek and Happ are included in the deal.

Shrike said...

I'm biased (duh!) but I really think the Jays' asking price from Philly is perfectly fair. On the contrary (although I would be doing the same if I was Philly's GM) the Phillies have countered with a lowball package that I think is easy for the Jays to reject. Ricciardi *should* insist on four valuable young players for Halladay and if Philly doesn't match his demands, he should just keep him until the off-season.


1Queens Up1 said...

F that. Phillies have won 12 of the last 14 without Halladay, no need to "become the Yankees" and give away all our top prospects for 1 (one) pitcher. Yes that pitcher happens to be Roy Halladay but still....
Phillies took 2 of 3 from the "NL Favorite" STL Cardinals. If THAT doesn't change your mind about needing Halladay I doubt anything will.

I am totally against this trade now, and if the BJs want to get selfish with their demands then let their payroll sink their ship for years to come, Phillies are Rollin' y'all.

PokahDave said...

I'm going to have to say that the Phillies will not get Halladay. It's a good thing if they don't trade away their future. They signed Pedro off of the scrap heap instead....