How Atlantic City will win

The landscape for live poker in the North East/ Mid-Atlantic states is changing. Quickly. As I've written about in the past, PA recently gave the nod to table games in their slot casinos across the state. DE is on board, and now Maryland is on it's way as well.

My man HOP just wrote a post about his thoughts on poker in the east (which include some incredible maps) and how it will effect Atlantic City and even some thoughts on how AC should defend.

In the business arena, when faced with new competition, conventional wisdom tells us that adding incentives to keep your current customers from straying will give you the best chance to retain that market share and keep losses at a minimum. *This means panic.

HOP goes on to suggest that AC should lower room rates, offer better deals, keep the big name talent coming in... All very lucid, intelligent, well thought out points (Ty Judge... OVER RULED!) <-- Herman Munster was the only person that could have played that part IMO.

What we have here is something rather complicated for AC. This isn't the corner McDonald's fighting for business over Burger King across the street. But it will be.

When a company, or organization, or person even, seems to have had a monopoly on something for some time (geographically at least) and then all of sudden, a deluge of new competition is unleashed, common sense tells you a few things. First, you would recognize the 'ole supply and demand rule. Supply has exceeded demand, hence the monopoly will lose a lot of business to competing shops. In this case, most likely, proximity. Players all over PA, DE, and MD traveled to AC to get their live poker (BJ, craps, whatever else) groove on. Now they won't. It makes sense to think that AC will lose a lot of that daily play they were so used to, to something as simple as convenience.

Secondly, If you've been to AC, you would know it's not the nicest, the easiest, or the happiest place to be. To make the hour and thirty minute drive for me costs $30 in gas, $12 in tolls, an extra 30-45 minutes in traffic, and $5 - $15 to park.

In other words, to just go and play your simple 1/2 nl hold'em live action game, or ship about $300 to play $15 max bet Black jack, it will be conducive to stay in state and hit up one of the many casinos that will now offer those same games.

This is all true when it comes to the guy or gal who likes to set out once a month and play recreationally. The ones who the casinos like to cater to. The $500 a month club if you will.

Yes indeed, these players will hurt AC. The Atlantic City press published a story in January that PA actually PASSED Atlantic City for the first time in slot revenues for Dec. '09. Not a good sign. Atlantic City better friggin' panic. If for any other reason than this... Over the years they have spent (all casinos collectively) a shit ton of money building poker rooms. Something that was in the past a loss leader. Casinos don't make money on poker like they do the other table games. It does have it's advantages. First, it became a great marketing tool to bring players to their venues. The popularity of poker throughout the early to mid ott's was a boon to lure people by the masses into a casino room. The hope was that spouses and others would follow to go play the "other games" while pops dusted off at 3/6 limit. It worked. Secondly, it's guaranteed income. There's no whale that can plop down a $300k bet and hit for 35 to 1 on black 20 (if 20 is indeed black). Hwever, that guaranteed income never even came close to the profit margins it expected off of general table games, therefore, almost considered a loss, when you calculate how much space it took away from being able to offer more of the games that actually provide those lucrative profits.

AC did a great job providing poker and saw a lot of value out of it. The Borgata has made itself the premier place to play in the East Coast, and a regular tourney stop for pros alike. Something of a feat considering how difficult is to get to AC (fly to philly, find a car service to get you down there, stay, get back). Trust me, it's an issue with players.

All of the above points to AC having an issue with PA and surrounding states being able to compete. Add to that the intentions of those PA properties. Philly Parx (Bensalem, PA) issued a press release some 3 months ago stating that they would open a 100 table poker room. That would make them the largest poker room on the east coast (Borgata is currently, with 85 tables).

Now, I have since learned that it will most likely be 75, but time will tell. The point is, not only Parx, but the Sands in Bethlehem, Harrah's in Chester, and other properties are making it a point to show everyone, consumers, vendors, and competitors alike, that they will be making a huge push to gain as much market share as possible. All of this, plus previous points, doesn't bode very well for AC and it's properties.

I will tell you however... AC management are no dummies. Let me get back to the original comparison of Burger king versus McDonald's. What we have here are like products against different brands, and each hold their own. Now, let's throw in Wendy's. Wendy's was successful because they catered to a different consumer. Back in the hay day, they catered to yuppies.

Atlantic City is going to take this path. Over the last decade, AC has tried to become more of a Vegas type arena. This wasn't done by the city fathers. This was (and is) attempted by the properties themselves. When I say Vegas, I'm being a little unfair. This would lead you to believe that it's about competing against Vegas, and that's not the point I am trying to make. What I mean is that AC will become more of a destination resort rather than a daily destination.

The history of AC is very important to be able to understand how much of a paradox AC will have to overcome in order to be successful against new competition. In the next post, I will go through the history of AC, how it made it's money, and what steps it will take to overcome the transformation of east coast gambling.

I will end this post by telling you that AC will not lower prices. You will actually be paying more for rooms. You will continue to see the level of talent showing up for shows, and you will see higher limits on their minimum table requirements. No more $10 black jack baby. You may not even see 2/4 limit in the poker rooms. AC will see some drop off initially from those curiosity seekers looking at those new rooms. Their daily play will have issues as well. But overall, I believe AC will overcome this onslaught of competition and, eventually, come out ahead.

Winter Borgata Poker Open - 2010

It's that time again folks! Borgata' s Winter Poker Open has started today with a Deep stack $350+ $50 NLHE tournament. So far there are 1500 registrants.

Follow along here!

HELP HAITI!

The following was totally ripped off from LJ's Blog. Word for word. Now go and donate.

help haiti
CR (Card runners) instructor Verneer is organizing donations for Haiti here and has already raised over 6k, and FTP is also doing a bunch of tournaments and fake tournaments. Cribbed from Brian's blog:

1. Aid For Haiti tournaments: Starting tonight and running through Sunday, there will be a number of “Aid For Haiti” tournaments at a range of buyins for players to participate in. The first one is at 2PM ET (under an hour) and it’s a $5 + $5 ($5 from every entry will be donated).

2. Aid For Haiti “no-play” tournaments: These are “fake” tournaments that won’t run. For anyone that wants to make a direct donation, they can enter one of the 10 different tournaments (all “scheduled” for Sunday at 6pm ET, 3pm PT) and not worry about playing a tournament.

3. An “Aid For Haiti” user has been set up for direct P2P transfers. Anyone can transfer any amount greater than $5 to that player ID.

All money raised will be matched by Full Tilt Poker and sent to various charities, so for every dollar you donate, an additional dollar from FTP will be directed toward helping the cause. Personally I will be making a direct donation, as well as possibly playing in some of the tournaments. I urge anyone who can help, even a little, to do so as well.

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for those who don't want to use poker monies (like me) you can donate directly through red cross here.

edit: apparently pokerstars is matching donations. info on their blog.

You can also TEXT right from your mobile phone. text “Haiti” to 90999 and your phone will be auto billed for $10 and go directly to help efforts.

Pray - hope - send good mojo, karma, whatever

I'm no sap. Nor am I one to really give a shit about pain and suffering. I have no compassion. just ask my wife, kids, friends, poker pals, golf buddies, parents, siblings... you get the point.

But reading up on this earthquake down in Hatti is very disturbing. I think stuff like this is usually looked upon in amazement and possibly sadness by those on the outside... for about 2 minutes. Then we go on with our daily lives living in a false sense of security that something like that could/ would never happen "here", and how lucky we are to have not been in that place or have friends and relatives in that place. Then drink our coffee, or log on for some cards, or do homework, or wash dishes... you get the idea.

I read a lot last night from different sites. Saw many pictures and many videos. Read many stories about the rescue attempts, and how rebuilding isn't even on their minds yet. How their hospital system isn't set up to handle a catastrophe like this and how people are literally dying on the streets.

I saw a press conference form their ambassador recalling how Haiti helped out those countries in the 1800's and would look for some reciprocation NOW. The dude is recalling something from the 1800's in order to ask for help. Just crazy.

Basically a whole country is in flux. Family from around the world can't get in touch with those who may have been injured or worse been killed. How will they rebuild? how will they handle the loss of infrastructure? Humans figure this stuff out all the time. It's what we do. They will rebuild. The US will be there to help. No doubt other countries will be there to assist.

But for now, the event itself is unprecedented. I can't imagine the mayhem of what has happened. It was their Apocalypse. Imagine being the guy who thought that this must be happening across the whole world. "Oh man! The Mayans got it wrong by two whole years!"

So pray for these people. Send good wishes, or whatever act of spirituality you believe/practice in. All the problems you have are nothing compared to what these people are going through.

The world is ending... I have proof

That is the world as we know it. Advances in technology are coming much faster and with greater possibility then we know it. This is the origin of the ending of the world.

Dude! He's like a gremlin. Comes with instructions and shit!

PA has passed table games. Oh man. Stay tuned for some insights. This is going to throw a wrench into some things :)

"The bill calls for upfront license fees of $16.5 million for stand-alone casinos and casinos at horse tracks and $7.5 million for resort licenses.It also changes some of the regulatory language in the state's gaming law by barring anyone convicted of a felony from holding a casino license or acting as a "key employee" at a casino."

Halladay, Eagles, and... Poker! not particularly in that order!

The Eagles game yesterday was atrocious. When McNabb is bad, he really stinks it up. The Defense didn't do much of anything as Romo picked them apart. Think about that statement... ROMO... picked them apart. Sheesh!

Anyway, yesterday's defeat hurts in a very real way. First, it takes them from a 2 seed to a 6 seed. What that means is three away games to get to the Superbowl. Which also means, in all probability, no Superbowl.

Which now takes me to... 39 days til pitchers and catchers!

Ahhh, the Roy Halladay trade. Now, I know this isn't current but where to begin? It's actually not that all complicated when you get right down to it. Cliff Lee is great, and served us well. There was a statement made by his camp that their first offer was rejected and he was traded on the day of the rejection. I hate to mis-quote but his response went something like this...
"You know we made an initial offer. I don't know of any player who has never gotten a counter offer until now. There was no counter offer, just a message that I was traded."

Apparently this surprised him. Which is likely, and expected I guess. But the Phils reportedly has some sort of indication that he would not sign any deal that didn't have at least 6 years to it. Unfortunately for Mr. Lee, The Phils organization has a philosophy that no pitcher will ever get a deal longer than 3-4 years. One I happen to agree with as a baseball guy.

Now, I can go over all of the moves they have made so far, and what they gave up for Mr. Halladay. Which ultimately looks like something they should have done in July. But July was different. For one, Drabek was untouchable back then. Why then and not now? Because Rubin Amaro is a goddamn genius, that's why. They weren't going to get anything to replace the future prospect of Mr. Drabek. Add to that the assumption of success that Halladay would have had throughout the playoffs, and his deal would be completely different now. In fact, I might even assume that Mr. halladay would be the one being released and Mr. Lee being signed to a 4 year deal had that happened.

However, it went the way it did, and here's what we get...

Two of the Mariners top pitching prospects to replace Drabek. Doc, and who cares after that. Plus, we get Doc for ultimately 4 years and most likely the rest of his career. Which doesn't mean too much because after the next two years, the Phils will be in massive rebuild mode. They won't keep Mr. Howard. The Phils will most likely be unwilling, or even able to pay what his salary demands will be. Mr. Hamels will most likely be out the door as well. If he steps it back up, they won't pay him. If he continues on the way he did this year, they won't want him.

So congrats to the Phils org and their intentions on making another serious run for another WS title in the next 2-3 years. After that, live with what you get I say. And I won't give a shit either.

As for poker and other things... The Borgata Winter Open is coming up shortly. This year it starts a little late. A week late to be exact. I've spoken to the brass over there and there are some compelling reasons for even starting just a little later than usual. I'm keeping them to myself though :)

But check out the schedule. I will expect the usual visits from friends trying to win some cake, or just dusting off some free time. I won't be there the whole time this time around, and most likely very sporadically as I tend to other issues. But when I am there you will see me wearing a, *gulp, Yankees Jersey, as a payment for a lost bet.

I also have some thoughts and info on the PA gaming law amendment to allow table games. it should go to a vote this week (the Gov is strong arming the senate) and expect a mid summer opening of table games in PA. I heard from a friend/ colleague that one of the largest in this area plan on opening a 100 table poker room. I find that hard to believe, but this is going to be very interesting to see.

Quick points on this... Other than an initial hit, AC won't be too affected. AC has become a destination rather than quick jaunt type place. The rest you can read elsewhere as I plan on writing a whole post about this for Bill Rini. I will cross post it here as well but I think the implications of PA allowing poker (among other table games) will have a huge impact on poker nationally. I have many reasons and info from insiders to support this thought. I'm not implying or pointing too the business side of it, although those thoughts will be included. My post will be more focused on how it will effect actual play, the growth (or decline) of "east coast" poker, and how the differentiators will likely be more recognized. I'm talking about the regionalization (<-- new word!) of poker and what it will do to bolster the category.

OK, enough horseshit for now :) Happy New Year to all, and I truly hope that you all get exactly what you wish for. Stick to your resolutions, change whatever you want, etc. etc. No resolutions for me this year as they become nothing more than a distraction and something to base failure on more so than success.

P.S. I love the fact that Jets won the last ever playoff game at GIANT stadium! and the Giants farewell was a 40 point shelling by 40 year old Brett Favre. Anyone see his post game interview from the field? Tell me he isn't still swallowing Vicodyn's like M&M's! BLAHAHAHAHAHAH!