Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Overthinking a hand - AA/ Riverchasers exit

I played the PPI/Riverchasers Tourney last night after a long day of partying at the house. We had almost 50 people (half of them kids) to celebrate Memorial day, a nieces birthday, and my parents 49th wedding anniversary.

It was a fun day with great weather, great food, and great company. We finished up around 9:30, and got the kids in bed by 9:45. Just enough time to enter the PPI/RC.

I chipped up early and was sitting around 5k when I pick up AA. Chad was at the table, and held around 6k.

With blinds at 40/80 I opened raised to 220. Two people flatted (Chad behind original caller) and we see a flop of 2d 2h 3d.

I raised a little more than 2/3's of the flop. Both call.

Now, this tells me that a flush draw is pretty much out of the question from either of them. I'm not sure about the first player but with my raise and flat on that flop, if Chad had a flush draw, a re-pop would have been optimal.

The turn comes a 7d. I lead out 900 into an $1100 pot. This should pretty much define my hand to anyone who is paying attention. Maybe not specifically AA, but no less than QQ, if in fact they are assuming an over pair.

It's with this assumption that gets me in trouble. First player folds, and Chad reraises big.

Now, normally, this is a very easy fold. My first guess was he was holding 77 or 33. The point is, there's very rarely a bluff or less than a flush here. I thought about typing something in chat about having to fold AA, but then I thought for a bit, and ultimately over thought.

Chad knows I can fold. And I thought for half a second, that 1) with my hand so well defined, it was a good spot for a bluff 2) (and maybe this is a bonehead thought) If he in fact had 77, which is what I mostly had him on, why would he decide to force the action here.

Most anyone else here I am folding 99% of the time. I just figured at this point, considering my opponent who knows this, I would try to be a hero. Which, unfortunately was for my stack.

He showed 33 and IGH. I wasn't surprised by any means. Nor was I disappointed. I guessed wrong (and am most likely wrong 70% of the time), but being right would have been so very satisfying.

Of course, there is the fact that it was a blogger tourney, and no one should ever be assuming that anyone is ever thinking at that level. Especially before the first break. Whether they have the ability or not.

There are 4 more chances left to get your seat, and I hope that everyone who doesn't have a seat at least takes a shot. It really is stupid not to, if you have the time.

The total buy-in for the last remaining 4 are $12, $11, $5.50, and $75. That's a grand sum of $103.50 for a shot at one of two Main event seats worth $10k each.

Get after it, and good luck to all.


Shrike said...

It is difficult not to get stubborn with AA in a bloggament. Chad is a skilled player so you have to at least consider that he might be bluffing, so I probably make a crying call here too.


Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

I think your read is flat out wrong here. I don't see how you call the big raise when the flush filled on the turn, and you had not one but two callers of your 2/3 pot bet on the flop. To me that screams that one of them is likely on a flush draw (straight draw is unlikely with this low flop), and I don't think I agree that a re-pop would be "optimal" for chad with a flush draw on the flop. That's one way to play it for sure, but you don't need to make the "free card" play there, and almost whenever I get more than one call on a flop with an obvious draw out there, my normal M.O. is to assume someone has a piece of the draw until I get some information that says otherwise. In this case, Chad called your good-sized flop bet, and then he raised big on the turn when the flush filled. If it's me I play it just like you did through the turn, and then I fold foldy fold fold to his action there, thinking he's gotta have the flush.

In this case, my read would have been wrong since he actually flopped a boat, but my stack would have been preserved to some extent.

That said, of course it's easy to go out of any blonkament against any player with AA, especially on an all low board. I just don't think you analyzed the hand right when you say two guys called your good-sized bet on the flop with an obvious draw, so thus neither of them must have the draw since they didn't raise. Calling is probably the more standard play on the flop with the flush draw -- the raise is more of the variation play in my book.

Go Philllllllllllllllllies!